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A bettor earned a substantial sum on the ouster of the Venezuelan leader shortly prior to it was made public, raising questions about whether someone profited from inside knowledge of the US operation.

Sudden Shift in Wagers

Predictions made on the forecasting site, an online prediction market, that the Venezuelan president would be removed from office by the month's conclusion surged in the hours before President Donald Trump declared on January 3rd that Maduro had been seized.

One account, which became a member in December and made four bets, all on the Venezuelan situation, profited a total of $nearly half a million from a starting bet of $32.5K.

Who placed the bet is a mystery. The user had only a string of letters and numbers for identification.

Market Signals Before Public Statement

Market statistics shows that traders assessed the probability of a political change at just 6.5% in the afternoon of the Friday before the event.

However these probabilities had jumped to eleven percent by the end of the day and skyrocketed in the first hours of the next day, indicating a rapid movement in positions right before the social media post was made.

"This particular bet has all the characteristics of a transaction based on inside information," commented an industry expert.

A small number of other individuals also made large payouts from predicting the capture.

Regulatory Scrutiny Intensifies

Some lawmakers are growing concerned.

Proposed legislation put forward on the start of the week aims to prohibit federal workers from making trades on forecasting platforms if they have "insider details" related to a bet.

The Prediction Market Landscape

Forecasting platforms have surged in popularity in recent years, with traders able to predict everything from sports to politics.

Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the previous administration. But it has found a more favorable environment during the current presidency.

Trading on insider information is a crime in the stock market, but there are more ambiguous rules in the event betting industry.

A spokesperson for Kalshi said their site "strictly forbids insider trading of any form."