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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has become an acrimonious face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with voters' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd